Economic impacts of climate-induced crop yield changes: evidence from agri-food industries in six countries

The potential impact of climate change on agriculture has been one the most discussed topics in literature change. Although possible impacts crop yields have widely studied, there remains little quantitative understanding heterogeneous economic responses to climate-induced yield changes different economies, particularly at higher levels warming. This study assesses eight scenarios warming, from 1.5 4 °C, rice and wheat China, India, Brazil, Egypt, Ghana Ethiopia. role both natural social factors production is considered by coupling a statistical model (ClimaCrop) global (GTAP). Changes outputs, consumer producer prices national welfare are presented. shows marginal benefits GDP China up 3.5 3.0 respectively. due projected increases which lower domestic prices. warming these trends begin reverse. other countries negatively impacted declining yields, with increasing imported wheat. declines, more severe reductions associated levels, India method beneficial as outputs reflect in-depth picture response markets ultimately regional consequences agricultural that will be importance decision makers.